Blog Entry

UTEA TEN MOST OVERRATED NCAA MEN'S TEAMS

Posted on: February 22, 2011 5:32 pm
 
UTEA: THE TEN MOST OVERATED TEAMS IN THE NCAA

The goal of this thread is to list only those teams you consider to be grossly overrated and why you feel that way.  This is not a forum for defending your favorite team when someone else names them. The goal is to state why you think teams are overrated, not why you think your team is being singled out. A list of rules to keep everybody on equal footing.

1) Please list complete school names. While you may be familiar with the shorthand abbreviation for a school, I may not be. I don’t want to try and figure out if KU means KANSAS or is a typo for KENTUCKY. Teams that are commonly referred to by an abbreviation such as UNLV, UCLA, SDSU, BYU are acceptable. If you have ANY DOUBT about whether the abbreviation is acceptable, list the whole school name at least once so I know for sure what school you are referring to.

2) Please list your teams in the order that you consider them to be most overrated. A team listed as #1 will receive 10 points. #2 will receive 9 points, etc down to 1 point for #10.

3) Please give an explanation for each team you nominate stating why you believe then to be overrated.

3) Please be respectful of the opinions of others. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and should not be attacked for having it as long as they can substantiate it in some manner.

4) Please make your posts pertinent to the teams you think are overrated. Do not make posts defending your favorite team just because someone else has considered them overrated. The best way to defend your team is to nominate other teams and have them accumulate points. Points will not be deducted by arguing. Ballots by participants who cannot abide by this rule may not be counted.

5) This ballot will conclude immediately following the Selection Sunday Announcement show.

6) If you have submitted a ballot and you want to make a change, please indicate what team on your previous ballot you want to replace and what number position you wish to place your new nominee in.
Voters will be listed to a total of ten nominees. Failure to indicate what team you wish to replace will result in the original ballot taking precedence. This way each participant will nominate ten teams only and the weighted point value will remain accurate.

7) A new thread will be posted by TUESDAY following SELECTION SUNDAY with the final results.




Category: NCAAB
Comments

Since: Dec 11, 2008
Posted on: March 3, 2011 5:49 pm
 

UTEA TEN MOST OVERRATED NCAA MEN'S TEAMS

Azztec, you forgot BYU.



Since: Sep 29, 2006
Posted on: February 27, 2011 12:24 pm
 

UTEA TEN MOST OVERRATED NCAA MEN'S TEAMS

SDSU -Zero wins against a top 25 team......


Aztecalert
Since: Aug 26, 2009
Posted on: February 27, 2011 12:06 pm
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Mar 20, 2008
Posted on: February 25, 2011 11:52 am
 

UTEA TEN MOST OVERRATED NCAA MEN'S TEAMS

6) KENTUCKY -  Ranked in the TOP TEN preseason, I can’t thank of another team who has done less with more talent that the Wildcats. They had the #1 recruiting class according to SCOUTS.com. Add to that Junior DeANDRE LIGGINS, who was rated the #5 point guard in the 2008 class ahead of Kemba Walker among others and Junior Darius Miller, the MR BASKETBALL winner as the best player in the state of KY that same year and you have a team that was expected to compete for a national championship by many. Chances are that they will fall completely out of the Top 25 after losing to ARKANSAS Wednesday night, making them 1-6 against SEC teams on the road. They are currently #17 in the RPI based mostly on a 2-4 record against top 25 RPI teams. The two wins are against Notre Dame on what was considered a nuetral court, FREEDOM HALL in LOUISVILLE where KY has played at least one home game every year for over 50 years. They even have their own special court complete with KENTUCKY LOGOS that they play on in FREEDOM HALL and of the 19,000 fans there, at least 18,000 were KY fans so I just can’t consider that a neutral court win which they get more points for because the RPI does. Their other Top 25 win was against LOUISVILLE, who lost their starting power forward and leading rebounder to an injury less than 24 hours before game time and their top reserve to an ankle sprain that same day. LOUISVILLE was soundly beaten on their home court and as good a coach as Rick Pitino is, he best asset is preparation and they were totally unprepared to play the lineup they were forced to use against KY that day. Ky’s next best win is a home victory over TENNESSEE, a team that was great the first two weeks of the season and has been mediocre to awful at best since then. KY has four losses to teams ranked #41+. 14 of their 19 wins are against teams ranked 87+, hardly the resume of a national championship contender.
 
7) UCONN
- UCONN has been vastly overrated in my opinion based on their performance in winning the MAUI CLASSIC. They went from unranked to top ten virtually overnight based on winning that tournament and beating preseason top ten teams MICHIGAN STATE & KENTUCKY, both of which will be unranked next week and one of which, MSU, is in serious danger of missing the NCAA tournament altogether. They are 3-6 against teams ranked 1-25 by the RPI showing that they have played a strenuous schedule but their winning percentage against those teams does not merit their top 15 ranking inn the AP and COACHES polls. 5-5 in their last 10 games, they are currently 8-7 in BIG EAST PLAY and likely to finish no better than 10-8 with 9-9 being very possible. Any team that is ranked higher in the national polls than they are in their own league, currently tied for 11th and ranked 12th in the CBS poll is overrated to me.

8) MICHIGAN STATE
- The classic example of a bad record coupled with a high SOS and reputation. MSU is only 1-7 against the RPI top 25. They have a loss to #173 IOWA  to go with that. Their overall record is only 15-11, barely above .500 but they are still being considered for NCAA tourney play based on a SOS of 5 which has kept their RPI up at 37. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games. This is why it’s not fair to reward a team for playing a very difficult schedule if they aren’t going to win any of those games by letting them in the NCAA tourney.

9) GEORGETOWN
- Another team who has played a very difficult schedule with mediocre results. Their SOS is #2, but they are only 4-5 against teams in the RPI top 25 and their RPI is #6 and they are tied for 6th place in the Big East. They lost their best ball handler and second leading scorer to a broken hand in their last game so their prospects of improving their standings in conference are shaky at best. They have gone from the hottest team in the Big East two weeks ago to one of the shakiest.

10) FLORIDA - Their recent success has them at #11 in the RPI despite 3 losses to teams ranked 100+. Their best wins are against an overrated KY and a fading VANDERBILT. I just can’t see how a team that is 14-4 against teams outside the top 50 can be ranked anywhere near the top ten.



Since: Mar 20, 2008
Posted on: February 22, 2011 8:22 pm
 

UTEA TEN MOST OVERRATED NCAA MEN'S TEAMS

1) SAN DIEGO STATE - Sitting at #4 in the COACHES POLL and a lofty #2 in the latest RPI, SDSU is THE PERFECT EXAMPLE of everything that can go wrong with the RPI. They have played 3 games against top 25 RPI teams, which is three times as many as they had played last week. How did this happen when they played #81 NEW MEXICO & #96 AIR FORCE?  Well, VILLANOVA dropped out of the Top 25 by virtue of losing 4 of their last 6 games allowing # 26 UNLV to move up to #25 and strengthen SDSU’s RPI. Before that, SDSU was 0-1 vs. top 25 RPI teams, that loss being a 13  point beating by BYU, another team that has benefited from flawed RPI results. I don’t think that a team without a single win against a team rated higher than #24 in any poll should be ranked in the top five of any poll. The two UNLV wins are the best wins on SDSU’s resume and they are unranked in any poll other than the RPI TOP 25. 21 of SDSU’s 25 wins are against teams ranked 50+. The only thing keeping them from being ranked higher by the RPI is a SOS of #33. Now 25-1 is an impressive record, but do they deserve to be ranked in the top 5 of any poll without beating a single legit top 25 team?

2) BRIGHAM YOUNG
- BYU, at #3 in the RPI, is almost a carbon copy of SDSU. They also benefited in their record vs. RPI teams ranked 1-25 by UNLV bypassing VILLANOVA. They do have a record of 5-0 now against teams ranked 1-25 with wins over SDSU, ARIZONA & UTAH ST, two more RPI benefactors, and 2 victories over UNLV. Of all these teams, only ARIZONA is currently ranked in the AP poll @ #10. To help bolster their case, they have lost to #37 UCLA on a neutral court and @ #81 NEW MEXICO. Their nest most impressive win is a one point neutral court win over #46 St. MARY’S. Their SOS is 22 and they are ranked #7 in the AP and COACHES poll behind SDSU despite the fact that they beat SDSU. Again, a team that has 20 of their 25 victories against teams ranked #46 or lower and losses to two teams outside any top 25 poll has not earned a spot in the top ten.

3) ARIZONA
- Arizona is 0-2 against teams in the RPI top 25, losing 87-79 to KANSAS on a neutral court and 87-65 @BYU. They have also lost @ #35 WASHINTON 85-68, though in fairness they did beat that same WASHINTON team this weekend at home 87-86 on a last second blocked shot that may have been goaltending, and they have lost @ powerhouse #226 Oregon ST. 21 of their 23 wins are against teams ranked 74+. They haven’t beaten a single team currently ranked in any Top 25 poll. So with a SOS of 47, what you have is three teams with astronomical winning percentages who are all intertwined with each other thereby inflating the RPI rating of each team.

IN CONCLUSION ON THESE THREE TEAMS, what you have proven is that they are the BADDEST SHARKS in SEAWORLD. Are they also the BADDEST SHARKS in the Pacific Ocean?  They may be, but there is no proof that THEY ARE until they swim outside their protected waters.


4) DUKE
- Currently #1 in both the AP & COACHES POLLS, DUKE is 1-1 vs. Top 25 RPI teams having beaten #14 NORTH CAROLINA at home and getting embarrassed @ #12 ST. JOHN’S. They also have a loss @ #49 FLORIDA ST to go along with that. Now St’ John’s has benefited from a strong SOS and several impressive home court wins, but I don’t think they deserve to be #12 which doesn’t make DUKE’S case any stronger. Duke’s schedule is a little more balanced than the previous three nominees, but 16 of their 24 wins are against teams ranked 75+. Their SOS is 38 and their RPI rank is #6, probably about right, but there’s no way they get ranked #1 in two human polls if the name on their jersey says anything besides DUKE.

5) KANSAS
- KANSAS is only 1-1 vs. the RPI top 25, beating the overrated ARIZONA 87-79 on a neutral court and losing at home to #8 TEXAS. They are currently #1 in the RPI, despite a beat down by #31 KANSAS ST, #2 in the COACHES POLL, and #3 in the AP POLL. They overall SOS of #9 makes them less overrated then the 4 teams ahead of them, but having 20 of their 26 wins against teams ranked 50+ does not justify rankings in the top 3 in any polls.

OK, I’ll be back tomorrow to insult some SEC and BIG EAST Teams, just so everybody doesn’t think I’m completely biased to the league my favorite team plays in. Also I want to show that if you want to get as in depth in your analysis as I do, you don’t have to submit all 10 teams at once. And if you debase a team and then change your mind because they won some games you anticipated them losing, you can. Just be sure that you replace that team with another team and tell me where you want your new team to go on your list of 1-10.






Since: Mar 20, 2008
Posted on: February 22, 2011 8:20 pm
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Mar 20, 2008
Posted on: February 22, 2011 5:40 pm
 

UTEA TEN MOST OVERRATED NCAA MEN'S TEAMS

FANS’ RATING GUIDELINES AND THE PROBLEMS WITH THE RPI & THE POLLS


As I go through and compose a list of most overrated teams, the logical place to start is teams that are artificially high in one of the various polls. The higher a team is ranked without justification, the more it is overrated in my opinion. The other most common overrating of teams is basing their fitness for inclusion in the NCAA tournament on reputation or past performance.

THE AP POLL
- The most reliable poll in my opinion. It is based on votes by sportswriters who we’ll assume have watched the widest variety of basketball teams and games since that’s what they are getting paid for. Also, we’ll assume that the majority of sportswriters are unbiased and lack any agenda to promote a specific conference or team, although there are bound to be some exceptions. The main drawback of this poll is that the vast majority of sportswriters reside in the most populated areas resulting in an unbalanced voting base residing East of the Rocky Mountains and on THE WEST COAST. These sportswriters will obviously be exposed to more games based on their geographical location despite the availability of games via internet archives and on sports channels with DVRs. This system is far from perfect but is probably the most accurate one we now have that is commonly used.

THE ESPN/COACHES POLL
- In theory, this should be more reliable than the AP poll. In reality, many of the ballots cast in poll are not cast by the actual team coach. Instead, they will have an assistant, usually the one with the lowest workload cast the ballot for them. Also, coaches tend to spend the vast majority of their time watching film of their opponents. If UCONN is not going to play UCLA, chances are that nobody on that staff is going to watch a single second of UCLA basketball so how can they accurately evaluate the actual merits of UCLA as a team?  Also, coaches have an incentive to vote for teams in their own conference. The higher the teams in their conference are rated, the greater impact their results against teams they are guaranteed to play will be. This is a definite temptation to vote with an agenda in mind to promote their own self interest.
 

THE RPI POLL - This is easily the least accurate poll that is commonly used. I will provide two links that explain how the RPI is derived and why it is not statistically accurate. Firstly, the RPI is simply an algebraic equation. It starts with all teams having the same rating and builds from there using this algebraic equation. The RPI does not consider winning margins, whether a crucial player misses any games, whether there are any other external forces that could affect the outcome of a game. The actual formula used is:

The current and commonly used formula for determining the RPI of a team at any given time is as follows:
RPI = (WP x 0.25) + (OWP x 0.50) + (OOWP x 0.25)
where WP is Winning Percentage, OWP is Opponents' Winning Percentage and OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage


Two major flaws commonly result from this strictly mathematical approach. The first is that a team with an astronomically high winning percentage can achieve an inflated ranking by beating teams that are substantially weaker than their record indicates. Nowhere in the use of winning percentage  affected by the quality of the wins, either by the team being rated or their opponents or their opponents-opponents. Teams that play in a weak league and pile up wins against other teams that play in weaker leagues that pile up wins against even weaker teams are rewarded unjustly. There are several examples of this every year and these are the teams I will attack most vigorously. The other major flaw occurs when a team plays an absurdly difficult schedule according to the RPI and is rewarded more for the results of their opponents wins instead of their own wins. A great example of this is the 2002 ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS. They were not invited to the NCAA tournament despite finishing with a final RPI ranking of 19, the highest RPI of any team not invited to the TOURNEY ever. The reason they were not invited, their season record was 14-15  but their RPI SOS was #1 giving a sub .500 SEC team and absurdly high RPI ranking. There are several schools that fit this profile almost every year. Usually they play in a POWER CONFERENCE and benefit from an inflated SOS and the high winning percentage of their league members.



THE SAGARIN RATINGS & THE KEN-POM RANKINGS - These are probably the most accurate predictors of a team’s actual ranking of all the systems available. Unfortunately, the availability of these rankings which combine computer results with human input and do take into account margins of victory and players missing games are not easily gotten.


OK, those are just some general guidelines for ranking your TEN MOST OVERRATED TEAMS.  Feel free to ignore them or use them as you see fit. I will adhere pretty closely to these guidelines and just wanted to give everyone a sense of my approach to this forum. Happy voting to everyone and thanks for your participation.




The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com